Blackjack Card Counters

Using increasingly complex computer simulations, the trend throughout the 1980s was to create more complex counting systems. Some of these systems, such as Ken Uston’s Advanced Point Count System, assigned three different values to cards and were extremely difficult to use.

Most of the card counting strategies developed are balanced systems. With a balanced system, the total of all of the values assigned different cards will equal zero when all of the cards in a deck have been counted. Hi-Opt II is an example of a balanced count.

Values of +1 are assigned the cards 3, 4, 5 and 6 of which there are 16 per deck of cards. A value of -1 is assigned the 16 10-valued cards. Whenever a deck of cards has been counted using this system, the total will be zero if the count was done correctly. This is an example of a balanced count where the sum of the number of cards assigned positive values times the number of cards with positive values assigned is exactly equal to the sum of the values of cards with negative values times the number of cards with these values.

While keeping a running count with a system like Hi-Opt II may not be extremely difficult, the running count must be adjusted to the true count before a playing decision can be made. The true count can be roughly defined as the running count adjusted for the number of decks left to be dealt with.

If you think using a system like this under real conditions is challenging, you are right. Imagine doing the following with the dealer talking, the cocktail waitress jiggling, other players chatting, the floorman coming by to see if you want to be rated, with the constant background noise assorted with any modern casino – bells and clanging noises coming from the all-pervasive slot machines, screams from the craps pit, while your companion interrupts you to see if you are ready to go shopping.

Let’s assume you are playing in a six-deck game. Your running count is +8. It is time to make your bet, and the dealer is waiting for you. But before you can decide how much to wager and how to play your hand, your card counting system requires that you first convert the running count to a true count.

Without forgetting the running count total, you look at the stack of discarded cards and estimate that three and one-half decks have been played. Now you must subtract the number of decks played from the total number of decks dealt and divide the number of decks remaining to be dealt with by the total number of decks used. Got it?

Subtracting 3 1/2 from 6 gives you two decks left to be dealt with. Quickly now, the dealer is really getting impatient, divide your running count of +8 by 2.5 decks and round the total down. Did you get 3? Good. Now make your bet according to your true count of +3, but don’t forget your original running total of +8 because you must continue to use this total to count the cards as they are dealt.

After the dealer has dealt with each of the players two cards, you notice the dealer has an Ace showing. He asks if you want insurance? You must go through the calculations all over again, using your new running count total of +11. Whether you take insurance or decline it depends on the true count. You must be able to recall the exact playing strategy for dozens of hands, as the strategy changes, depending on the true count. Sometimes you will hit a hard 16 versus a dealer 10 and at other times you will stand on the hand.

Now, try to act naturally. The floor person has just asked you if you like to take insurance? What do you say? If you are using a multi-level system that incorporates more than one numeral for counting, things can really get exciting. Imagine using the Uston Advanced Point Count, with values of 1, 2 and 3 assigned to various cards.

Uh oh. You forgot your side count of Aces. Many counting systems require that you also keep a separate count of Aces. Some experts blithely suggest that you can use chips or the position of your feet to count Aces.

Let’s see, right foot in, one Ace; left foot out, two Aces; running count is -6; three and a quarter decks left to be played. Now decide. Do you split a pair of tens or stand with them. Wait, you forgot to adjust to the true count and what was that strategy variation you were supposed to memorize?

I forgot to mention one more detail. Most systems require that you learn over 200 strategy variations matched to different levels of true counts and adjusted because of the Ace side counts. This is why you must know the true count before you decide how to play your hand. Your playing strategy changes with the count.

Are you starting to understand why most players are not card counters?

Using this approach, it will not take you any time to compute your wager size because the system is greatly simplified. You won’t need to make any adjustments to your count. The only numbers you will use for counting are -1, 0 and +1. And your playing strategy will stay the same regardless of the count.

Casinos have made it extremely difficult for card counters. In addition, counters have to contend with a strategy that requires a huge bankroll and allows for huge fluctuations in the bankroll. I would not attempt to earn living counting cards with less than $250,000 as my permanent bankroll. I would have to be prepared to see the bankroll decline as much as $100,000 and still have faith in my system.

And, with card counting, I would have to be prepared to play on a daily basis, putting in many hours of play, as card counting only gains an advantage over long term play, and may not help at all in any individual session. Many persons believe that card counters always win. Just the opposite is true. A very advanced card counter might win 60% of his sessions, losing 40% of the time. In addition, the counter is faced with the possibility of long losing streaks. If you are a weekend player using a typical counting system, you might easily lose four weekends in a row.

It is hard not to become discouraged about card counting once you know the grim truth. If you become very proficient at counting, you may be asked to leave a casino, or even barred from playing there.

While the casinos have created a number of formidable obstacles for would-be card counters, their latest weapon may spell the end for card counting if its use becomes widespread.

Many casinos are now using a continuous shuffling machine (CSM). This machine is a device that randomly inserts discards back into the deck. When one is used, it is like playing against a freshly shuffled shoe every hand. Please don’t confuse this with the automatic shuffler used for shuffling the entire deck or shoe.

Most players don’t like the CSM, and at this time, it is mostly being used at tables with lower minimum wages, so as to not offend high rollers at the higher minimum wager tables. The effect of the CSM on card counting should be obvious. If a CSM is used, card counting is rendered totally ineffective.

In addition to eliminating any risk from card counters, using a CSM actually speeds up the game allowing more hands per hour. Since most players play at a disadvantage to the house, increasing the number of hands played per hour increases the house profit. You can begin to see why casino bosses like CSMs.

 However, a computer simulation run on billions of hands showed that using a CSM actually lowers the house edge. This was true regardless of the number of decks used. Nine-Count Blackjack Strategy players have nothing to fear to play against CSMs.